Writ by Wit

Sunday, May 21, 2006

The Wages of Sin

The particular Sin of which we speak is the Sin of not paying Wages -- a tempting outlet for all that is chintzy and bad in the shrivelled hearts of restaurant owners and all manner of managers in the service industry.

Everything centres around time clocks and their use by one of my present employers, which we shall call the Haunted House. This appellation is appropriate enough: the alliterative starting consonants match the actual, horrid, place's to a tee (or an H, as it were); working there is actually a pretty frightening experience; and, with most haunted houses being mansions of a sort, I found myself inspired by this passage from the institution's comically illiterate handbook of (haunted) house policies:

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Customer Complaints:
  • If a customer has a complaint do your best to solve the problem in a calm and friendly manor.
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I suppose the idea is to remove from the haunted manor to a kinder, gentler environment less likely to intimidate the guest. Sound enough advice, I think. But I digress.

Before I go on, though, I must stress a rule in effect for the remainder of this post. I love little bits of Latin, and the bracketed "sic" is one of my favourites: what better way to one-up whoever it is you're quoting!? Be that as it may, sheer exhaustion prevents me from so annotating any excerpt from the place's house policies. I think "[sic]" would appear with greater frequency than the letter E. Whew. And now, to the point!

For that point, we shall look to the authoritative source itself:

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Clock-in/out:
  • Servers should never punch in before they have received their first table, first person scheduled for morning/evening shift, or management instructs you to do so.
  • Workers should be dressed and ready to work 15 minutes before their scheduled time.
  • You must puch out before you begin your cash-out.
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These are interesting policies indeed. On the one hand, the Haunted House is seizing the authority to compel it's employees to physically be on its premises and ready for work at a particular time. On the other, it states categorically that it will not pay the employees for that time (employees of the HH receive wages only for time on the clock -- and that if they're lucky...). In practice, I've seen people sit around (myself included) for up to two hours in their HH monkey suit, ready lest any scintilla of work should come their way. In the worst cases, they are then sent home without having punched in at all; it's "too slow".

Cash outs are probably less of a net burglar of wait staff wages than pure waiting to wait (though I'd not stake my life on it!), but here again the situation is quite clear: servers are obliged to be on the premises performing work -- in this case, reconciling records in order to remit to the big bosses precisely what is owed from the shift's sales -- but are not being paid for it.

All this not paying is so very curious that we now turn from the amusing stab at written English that is the Haunted House house policy book and head to the drier and so much less entertaining legalese of a document known only as "Employment Standards Act, 2000: Ontario Regulation 285/01 (Amended to O.Reg. 92/06) -- Exemptions, Special Rules, and Establishment of Minimum Wage". Whew! What a mouthful. It appears there's a little section about "work deemed to be performed". Let's take a look.

When work deemed to be performed
6. (1) Subject to subsection (2), work shall be deemed to be performed by an employee for an employer,
  1. where work is,
    1. permitted or suffered to be done by the employer, or
    2. in fact performed by an employee although a term of the contract of employment expressly forbids or limits hours of work or requires the employer to authorize hours of work in advance;
  2. where the employee is not performing work and is required to remain at the place of employement,
    1. waiting or holding himself or herself ready for call to work or
    2. on a rest or break-time other than an eating period. O.Reg. 285/01, s. 6(1).
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Those are my italics, of course. Now, it goes without saying that the actual text of the law requires employers to pay employees for work that is "deemed to be performed". As minimum wage employees, servers have to look no farther than Part IX -- 23. (4) of the actual text of the act itself. The legal position of the ghouls in our sinful Haunted House is starting to appear ethereal, nay, diaphanous.

Time runs short, here. I actually must be at work soon. But not paid, you see! One final bit of analysis. The end of the house policies has this statement:

I give the [Haunted House] permission to deduct my paycheque for uniforms and, N.T. cards, and realize that my paycheque can be deducted or held for cash out/cash box shortages.

I have read, understand, and agree with the above [Haunted House] policies!

This is followed by two horizontal lines, one on which we are expected to sign our names and the other to receive the date. Now we can already see that the document is illegal, so the Haunted House has no legal grounds for forcing us to sign it; furthermore, I have grave doubts that any of it is enforceable for this same reason. Further study of the Act suggests that even the closing paragraph is crooked. If you take a look at Part V (pertaining to Payment of Wages), you see that an employer simply cannot withhold wages because of "faulty work" (which is what a cash shortage would be, presumably) and that on no condition can an employer withhold wages without either written, specific, authorization of the employee or authorization under a court order or a statute of Ontario or Canada (I'm no expert on what statutes exist, I confess...).

It doesn't appear as though a general "permission to withold" is specific enough (in the first case) and, in the second, that an employer can compel the employee to give that permission. What it does appear is that the Haunted House's house policies are a whole lot of hokum, or worse.

The endemic flaws in management at the House that make resorting to foisting such cheap and felonious schemes onto generally unsuspecting and unsophisticated minimum wage employees appear so attractive are the subject of another day; simply put, an overhaul in management style, hiring, expectations of employees, and so on would translate into savings that someone who'd steal a quarter of an hour's wage at $6.75 on the hour couldn't even dream of.

In any case, I can't in good conscience sign onto these house policies, nor would for all the tea in China. I haven't yet decided what I'll do (maybe I should consult some tea leaves?) but do something I shall. Whether the Haunted House ends up reaping the whirlwind or simply swallowing a lump of pride is to be determined when I've ruled upon the Wages of Sin!

Monday, May 15, 2006

Freak these tales

Thus is titled a musical testament to a rapper's first romantic conquests. It's also a 'rollicking good fun' pun. Oxford English won't get you through this one: in ebonics 'to freak' can signify both 'demonstrating expertise'... and sexual things I won't get into. The possible phonetic connotations of tale[tail] must, ones hopes, be obvious to the reader. Now that we get it, let's move on.

Puns, the most maligned form of humour[I love them]-often deemed 'not at all humourous'- share many similarities with sophistication. A pun hides an enigmatic message in a simple phrase, sophistication , likewise, transforms thought towards complexity, but attempts clarity of message. Where successful, they transcend superficial qualities, implicit mockery of the literalist in art or in life. Puns are a very roundabout way of getting straight to the point, implying away from the obvious. We should expect a sophisticate to draw a very different meaning from superficial implication, indicating capacity to infer away from the obvious.

Unfortunately, sophistication is more than listening to opera or having an extremely large vocabulary.[sad, very sad] If it weren't, the ranks of the sophisticated would be swollen and the attribute no more an indicator of exceptional acumen than going to the opera is an indicator of sophisticated taste. Of course, we could take the line that people who go to the opera are more likely to have lots of money, and are, therefore, likely more wordly when it comes to managing their finances.[or lucky] Or, we could presume that people who go to the opera are aware of the popular mythology that surrounds opera-goers, namely that they display higher, more rarified[INDEED] tastes, suggesting the practice might indicate a propensity to wilfully manipulate others' perceptions of one's self. Sociopaths can demonstrate some sophistication too! So, 'sophisticated taste' tests inconclusive, but 'social sophistication' likely tests positive.

It is when sophistication is regarded as an unadulterated[haha] good that we reach dangerous territory. It is not that a person can be 'too sophisticated', but that a person tries so hard to be sophisticated that he becomes anything but: "too clever by half", as the English would have it- those who are not particularly sophisticated when it comes to displaying appropriate levels of sophistication being more likely to be scorned than those who try to punch at their own weight.

Remember that simplicity can be your best friend, fool. I'll stick to displaying 50% more erudition than is required by the situation. As always, with consummate ease!

This is a convenient way to avoid studying for a final exam. I can almost rationalize it, unlike games, mindless online link-chasing, tv, or sex toys.

I had a watershed moment yesterday. Ok, I didn't, but I really wanted to use that word. Actually, I watched 'Take The Lead' with a couple friends; they were 'coupled friends', a 'friendly couple'. TWO, "un, deux..." They will, to preserve their[its] good names[name], remain anonymous. But that's neither here nor there. So, what do 'Take The Lead' and 'watershed' have in common, other than a few vowels and consonants? Well, technically, nothing. If you've seen one modern dance movie, you've probably simultaneously seen them all and wished you gone to see 'Scary Movie X' instead. If your judgement is bad enough that you'll go see a 'dance' movie we really shouldn't expect much more, should we? However, if that is your first 'dance movie', it could have been a 'watershed' moment in the sense that sticking your dripping wet hand in an electrical socket is a 'watershed' moment.
Ok, ok, you're probably wondering, "why all this needless self-flagellation? I guess I can see where he was coming from with the sex toys quip..." No, no you can't. There's masochism, and then there's the 'dance movie' concept. [There's the thumb screw, and then there's Margaret Atwood]Nevertheless, I'm experiencing some deferred gratification, sort of like reverse post-purchase anxiety, writing this blog.

Ahh yes, the movie...I'm busy reading a review of "Take The Lead"...a 'refresher', ya dig? Here's an example of a thought[?] that could have been running through my brain during the movie, courtesy of Angie[Rotten Tomatoes]: "Although the film is entirely watchable, the director carelessly exploits the potential for race drama." [NASCAR-inspired soap operas?] There certainly was drama, and there was race; but I don't recall any potential. 'Potential' describes capacity for future development...I guess their 'rainbow coalition' didn't include a flamboyant homosexual and introverted genius...Do I smell a sequel, "Take the Lead: Bayoneting the Survivors?" [based on a movie based on a true story]

"The film is over-long, plot heavy, needlessly complicated and lacklustre, but the moments of dance and music keep it from being a total waste of time." Right...Liz.

Seeking a sophisticated voice to pronounce upon this show,I turned to Roger Ebert. Interspersed amidst his vivid reminiscence was this pearl,"The film is more fable than record, and more wishful thinking than a plan of action. Yet the end credits leave me no doubt that the real Pierre Dulaine's programs have spread to many other schools and that thousands of students are now learning the tango..." from which we deduce the hero can read. He concluded, thoughtfully, "There is a more pessimistic view of urban high schools in another movie opening today, "American Gun," and I fear it's closer to the truth." Yes Roger, the world IS a dangerous place.

Apparently he needed something to bring him down from his 'Take The Lead' induced high.

Thursday, May 11, 2006

Poetic Germaneness

Wow. I clearly have far too much time on my hands, though I've recently taken some steps to reduce it. Steps that don't involve sleep. However, I did find myself searching about with serious intent for some employment legislation when what to my wondering eyes should appear but this gem, brought to me by the magic of Google.

Time Clock

I bought a time clock
And put it in my house
And I punch in and out
At various times through the day

In the morning I wake up and shower
And then take my card and punch in
And then I make my breakfast
Get dressed and go out for a walk

Then I play tennis and then maybe I write a comic book
Then in the late afternoon, I punch out

Go out and eat some popcorn
While I’m seeing a moive
Come home and punch in my time card
And then call my friends down in Texas

It’s good to have a time clock
Installed on the wall of your house
I punch in whenever I want to
And punch out when it feels right

Sometimes I forget to punch in, before I start reading
reading or kissing someone
Then I go back and write in the time,
and beside it I write my initials

I’m happy with my time clock
That I have in my house
I punch in and out
At various times through the day

Anyone who's ever experienced a time clock before must have some appreciation for that. I think it's awesome and I usually won't touch a poem that was written since Dylan Thomas died. Or maybe Frost.

I got it from here and the author seems to have a whole slew of them here though the few I flipped through weren't nearly as good. So far as I can tell, her name is Becky; if I can get the name in full for the purposes of a full citation, I shall.

Monday, May 08, 2006

Q for Qualified Success

This is a copy-paste job of musings from my personal file; it dates from about a month prior, so the odd current-events reference might nonplus. I'd been wanting to see the film again with a friend of mine who's musical expertise I might consult; sadly, she bailed on me so many times it hardly seems worth trying again. Sadly, because I think she'd have loved it as much as me.

Read some reviews looking for answers this morning after Phil's Grandson's Place but everything in the ten or so I looked at (mixed bag of positives and negatives) was at the intellectual level of a small child and boasted wordsmithery and prose like in kind (just head over here to see how true it is!). I guess I have to write my own.

Remember, remember, the fifth of November,
The gunpowder treason and plot.
I know of no reason the gunpowder treason
Should ever be forgot.

So goes an English nursery rhyme, the lighter and more memorable counterpart to the Gunpowder Plot Sermons that began in 1606, annual admonitions against the kind of treason that saw Guy Fawkes drawn and quartered after 5 November, 1605.

So also opens "V for Vendetta": equal parts cloak and dagger intrigue, revenge flick, comic book, lyrical poem, preposterous polemic. It might not be totally accurate to say the film had me at "Remember", but I shall state my bias outright: by the time the man in the leering mask manifests an inhuman talent for alliteration, in the first few minutes of the first reel, I no longer care how good the movie is -- I love it. My hero isn't Evey, an especially innocent-looking Natalie Portman who is, by general consensus of critics everywhere, both a proxy for the audience and the deliverer of an Oscar-calibre performance (though I'm not sure I agree). My hero is V, the English Cyrano de Bergerac. My point of view is his.

V is mad, hence the title. He wants to topple a totalitarian British government of the near future by whacking a few guys he hates and fomenting an uprising of the people of London. He's Maximus Decimus Meridius if you put "Gladiator" in a time warp; he's a liberal democrat with a serious grudge. He's also, apparently, a terrorist.

He's so labelled by the "High Chancellor" (what's the name of that country that's always calling its head of state "Chancellor" again?) which I suppose is natural given that any regime needs a noun for "outlaw" -- assuming "outlaw" won't do. Given the world's political climate today, and the film's not-so-thinly-veiled agenda, the word's a peculiar choice, though. What truly grates is how unquestioningly it is picked up and carried by every reviewer I have read. To take just one random sample of the numbskulls reviewing pictures these days, John DeFore at "The Hollywood Reporter" calls "Vendetta" 'a movie whose heroes are terrorists'.

V might be a vigilante who dials "M" for Murder but a terrorist he is not. If you give a year's advance warning before demolishing the Houses of Parliament, V might be for Vandal, but if you're going to get worked up about the destruction of such a storied piece of real estate, doesn't most of the guilt lie on the shoulders of a security force so dumb (like, film critic dumb) they can't even protect a few contiguous city blocks from one man when given 365 days advance warning? Likewise, blowing up the Old Bailey at midnight might be mean, but it's not exactly the same as driving an airliner full of civilians into the twin towers on a work day.

Unfortunately, the Wachowski brothers seem to be pushing the bankrupt thesis that "one man's terrorist is another's freedom fighter" when this just isn't so. Terrorism is well-defined. It consists in the targeted butchery of civilians as an end in itself. Car bombing a school full of children or blowing up pregnant women and the elderly on a bus makes you a terrorist. V's a saboteur, a killer and, arguably maybe, a murderer; he's not a terrorist.

Vendetta is capably photographed by British cinematographer Adrian Biddle (BSC, credits include "Alien", "Willow", "Thelma & Louise", "Event Horizon"), who died in London of a heart attack near the close of 2005. Rich blacks, whites, and crimsons. The government's agencies are cold blues, while V's home is warm sepia. The rest is night and shadows. The score, by Dario Marianelli is unassuming compared to the phenomenal, haunting, original score for "Pride & Prejudice". Sombre string timbres abound, sometimes accompanied by martial percussion and brass or a reedy, melancholy oboe -- and "Pride"'s beautiful piano is nowhere to be heard. Music supports action on screen without every really stepping into the light.

What irked me was a use of the first movement of Beethoven's Fifth (get it? V, 5?). My Naxos recording is bad enough -- it takes 1:25 to get through the 110 measures of the exposition but even if you can't read the bloody metronome markings (108 half notes to a minute), the tempo markings on the score say "allegro con brio". Con Bloody Brio! With Spirit! Not only does the plodding rendition suck the soul out of the symphony, it sucks the drama from the scene. Doing it slow doesn't make it sinister -- it puts it to sleep. More likely than not the blame for this lies with the Wachowskis or some uncredited Music Supervisor rather than Marianelli.

It might be only coincedence that the lyrics to Arthur Hamilton's "Cry Me a River", played several times on V's mighty Wurlitzer, contain a little verbal "remember remember" motif not too dissimilar from the opening rhyme, but more interesting is the final piece of non-original music -- Tchaikovsky's "1812 Overture" which, lofting high above the city from its hijacked loudspeakers, underscores the razings of the Bailey and of Parliament.

While it's hardly likely the filmmakers chose "1812" because it, too, suffered under a repressive police state -- Soviet censors tore the "God Save the Tsar" theme from it and inserted "Glory" from Glinka's opera "Ivan Susanin" -- and (who knows?) the choice could be as shallow as the piece's nowadays ubiquity on Fourth of July celebrations accompanied by cannon fire and fireworks, another reason suggests itself. Tchaikovsky is pretty generally believed to have been a homosexual, and one thread that runs through "Bound", the "Matrix" trilogy, and Vendetta is the Wachowskis' obsession with lesbians, sadomasochism, and all manner of sexual abnormality. It is said that Laurence Wachowski's divorce resulted from his relationship with a Los Angeles dominatrix and rumours abound that, as "Lana" or "Linda", the recluse is now taking hormones in preparation for an attempted physical sex change operation.

Some reviewers, notably Victoria Alexander, ask whether V's fans will support "his obvious gay-themed persona" but I see nothing to substantiate the suggestion. His relationship with Evey is platonic of necessity but it is obvious from the first that he loves her and as the story ends that she loves him. Rather, the Wachowski obsession comes out in a drawn-out flashback midway through the second act that quickly bogs down into a painful political sermon, and in the character of Deitrich (ably played by Stephen Fry), a gay talk show host who is forced to solicit the society of young women to keep his secret but is done in in the end (of all the irony) by a Qu'ran in his posession.

It seems that under the maniacal Chancellor Sutler, whose name could probably be a little subtler (John Hurt, no relation to the American William), the future is not friendly for Muslims and gays. As the two most prominent suppressed identity groups in the film, it's worth pointing out for the umpteenth time what peculiar bedfellows they make, the one group being more antagonistic to the other than any Western nation on the face of the earth. Regardless, in the film both Muslims and homosexuals face persecution and murder.

At this point, the premise of the dystopian mis-en-scène is unravelling. After all, on any given weekend more British Muslims go to mosques than fill the pews of the Church of England. Even if Great Britain did revert to being a forcefully Christian nation, one would expect that the most influential bishops would be Anglicans; the bulk of the nation's Catholics live in Ireland, not London. It seems the Wachowskis made their man a Catholic for no other reason than a cheap confession gimmick. Leaving religion by the way, I notice that Dell Computer's shares closed at $USD 29.85 on the NASDAQ this afternoon, leaving the company with a market capitalization of some 74-odd billion dollars. Now Dell is headquartered in Round Rock, Texas, with central manufacturing facilities in Austin. It trades on the NASDAQ, whose Broadway headquarters I've walked past in New York. To expect me to believe that Dell maintains a thriving export business to Sutlerian London while America is ripping itself to shreds in Civil War II is pure screenwriting laziness, but Joel Silver's marketing people make sure every LCD in sight is emblazoned with a Dell logo all the same.

The business of a Thatcheresque "conservative" party turning into Commy-Nazis* (though having lived under neither kind of fascism, the portraits of Sutler on the wall first bring Yoweri Museveni to mind for me) is of course pure blinkered nonsense of the same kind that caused Matt Brunson to wax eloquent to this genial effect:

Admittedly, some of the allusions skewer more toward the Nazi regime than the Republican Party (though many will persuasively argue that they're one and the same), but how to deny the topicality evidenced in the scenes involving detainment centers where prisoners are hooded, humiliated and tortured, or the presence of a TV station that's unabashedly pro-government, or an administration that instills a vague fear of foreigners to quiet the teeming masses, or a ruler who uses faith-based initiatives to crush opposing viewpoints? Meanwhile, those charitable toward Colin Powell might even see him in the character of Inspector Finch, a decent man too cowed by his bosses to outwardly question their motives. I suppose the only real question is whether a hatemongering right-wing TV host (Roger Allam) is meant to represent Bill O'Reilly, Pat Robertson or Rush Limbaugh, though ultimately I guess it doesn't really matter.

Perhaps the cut Matt Brunson saw featured prisoners being forced to listen to Christina Aguilera but ultimately this must have been removed from the final theatrical version... In any case, if you're watching this movie for political motivation, "P for Platitudes" is only slightly less topical than "A for Asinine". It's the remainder of the film that's great.

Hugo Weaving is given the unenviable task of playing the title character from behind a Guy Fawkes mask that bears the same silly grin in every frame. As a result, the poor man is left with about the same visual emotive capacity as a mime has vocal range. Weaving rises to this considerable challenge in two ways. First, he gives the character a gentle, eloquent, voice that manages to be very expressive and very English. I only began to suspect it was Weaving at all more than halfway through because he cannot hide his very pronounced and somewhat unusual diction. When he assumed the guise of William Rookwood a few minutes later, it was unmistakable: in the Rookwood voice, one expects him at any minute to scream out "MR ANDERSON!" and start punching through walls.

Second, he brings all manner of small gesticulations into play -- bobs of the head, waves of the hand, posture when standing, that begin to define the character. It's likely that any non-facial gestures would be more noticeable in contrast with the static visage but it seems like these characteristics are calculated, cohesive, and consistent. More importantly, they work.

Regardless of all the criticism attending the filmmakers for putting their protagonist in a mask for the entire running time, there's a interesting point here: in a cinematic language that relies extensively on reaction shots as part of "acting", this film relies on reaction shots of a main character who's incapable of reacting! Some reviewers' comments on the Weaving performance are borderline imbecilic, though. Victoria Alexander writing in "Eclipse Magazine":

...it's a struggle to make out Weaving's muffled ramblings from behind the expressionless mask.

Maybe it's wishful thinking to expect that someone writing published reviews would have heard of a looping studio before; anyway, I'm willing to bet that (barring some miraculous improvements in microphone and Guy Fawkes mask technology) not a word of Weaving's "muffled" ramblings that made it onto the movie's soundtrack was actually recorded on the set. A slightly easier job for film editor Martin Walsh.

Some of the Weaving scenes are actually very poignant, perhaps none more so than that opposite the Irish actress Sinéad Cusack after V has just administered a fatal dose to her scientist/coroner character Delia Surridge. "Is it painful?", she asks. "No," the reply. "Thank you. Is it meaningless to apologize?". "Never." "I'm so sorry," she says, and with that she dies.

Extensive effort is expended beating the "V" symbol within an inch of its life, especially in the visual realm where V even leaves V-shaped bloodstains on walls as he staggers from a victory. In a picture that tried to be "real", these little flourishes would jar us out of our suspension of disbelief; thankfully Vendetta tries nothing of the sort and the symbolism is an enjoyable little gimmick. Even the most brazen -- and pointless -- symbols are a great deal of fun. To wit: the enormous V-shaped domino set that collapses leaving only one standing -- the one thing V does not control, the one outcome he cannot guarantee. A nifty effect, I'm left wondering whether it was deemed workable to set up, light, and photograph those shots traditionally or whether they were subcontracted out to the VFX people and their computers.

Visual effects are generally very good but, refreshingly, are not the main characters of the film. Starkly differentiating itself from modern "action" flicks, Vendetta's effects are mostly more sparingly used. Probably the neatest ones were simple enough, but vintage Wachowski: in a throwback to the film's comic book origins, motion arcs are composited on the tips of V's vorpal blades as they go snicker-snack through Vendetta's final action sequence.

The plot by and large holds together once one accepts that Vendetta is fantasy first and foremost. Personally, I was able to believe that V comes and goes as he pleases, that he apparently does everything from fencing to track-laying, and that he's insanely rich. Would it take millions or billions to create and mail out enough cloak-and-mask sets to create his little army of doppelgangers? It's a little tougher to accept how he manages to get hundreds of thousands of said costumes into the mail but in the end it matters little. How someone whose parents suffered the fate that Portman's did wound up working as a propagandist and mouthpiece at the state broadcaster is also unclear; surely there were other jobs available.

The only place the film truly falls flat is the second act. From the filmmakers' point of view this middle segment provides them with moral ambiguity for the character of V, a surprising plot twist to set up conflict between V and Evey and develop the Evey character, and a soapbox from which to deliver a sermon on their own view of the world. Problem is, the ambiguity is startling but does not stick, the plot twist is unconvincing and unrealistic, and the proselytizing drags on so long that it's hard to imagine even the most faithful follower enjoying it. The film falters but, entering the home stretch, again delivers what was promised from the start. Although Portman's final monologue makes no sense at all (especially through the lens I used to view the film), the finale made me think back to the opening speech and this little gem: "You cannot love an idea." Of course that's as false as it is true, but a good piece of advice all the same.

Whatever. The movie isn't an idea or a person. It's a comic book on the silver screen and I loved it enough to go watch it again. That's the end of that.

*: What do you get when you put "Stalin" and "Hitler" together? Why, you get "Sutler", of course! Maybe the "u" is from B"u"sh. Haha!

Status Quo

This is, of course, supposed to be a slow, steady, gradual process. We're not the obsessive posters you'll find pretty much every elsewhere you look across the so-called blogosphere. All the same, looking at the way things are right now, I count 0 posts by theBrightSeraphim, an impressive showing of 0 by johndon't, and a complete failure to even pretend to join by the elusive fourth sibling. Oh, and remember that game, guys? Yeah. The one we're all playing but I'm the only one who's actually doing it and by the rules?

Help me out a little here!

In the meantime, being the only one putting forth any effort, I'm going to plagiarize my previous writings to simulate actual activity.

Yeesh.

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Wounded Animals

Hockey goaltenders remind me of wounded animals in the posture they adopt to cover up a puck and stop play, oblivious to the 200-pound behemoths whacking, shoving, falling, and crashing away above them. Almost look like oversized wolverines.

I've been wanting to write something about the NHL playoffs for quite some time now and with 5 of the 8 first-round series closed out, here I go. I've been reading a bit about stock markets lately -- and specifically the utility of simple statistics in the form of financial statements and information distilled from them (and stock prices) in predicting how a basket of stocks will perform on average in the future. I got to wondering whether I could conflate these two lines of thought: are available tangibles in the form of hockey stats enough to predict the outcome of the Stanley Cup playoffs?

For starters, let's look at the history of the President's Trophy (introduced in the 1985-1986 season by the NHL Board of Governors). It is presented annually to the team with the best regular-season points record. Notice that in the previous 20 seasons (including this one, since the Good Lord Stanley hath smitten the Detroit Red Wings from the first round by His agent ye mighty Oilers of Edmonton), the President's Trophy is a mediocre predictor of who will make the Stanley Cup finals, correctly predicting a finalist 8 of 20 times (40%) and a champion 6 of 20 times (30%). Not the stuff great averages are made of (though, on the bright side, when the President's Trophy winner makes the final it historically wins 75% of the time; that's nice).

YearPresident's TrophyStanley Cup Finalist
2006Detroit Red Wings ? ?
2004Detroit Red Wings Tampa Bay Lightning Calgary Flames
2003Ottawa Senators New Jersey Devils Mighty Ducks of Anaheim
2002 (*)Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings Carolina Hurricanes
2001 (*) Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche New Jersey Devils
2000St. Louis Blues New Jersey Devils Dallas Stars
1999 (*) Dallas Stars Dallas Stars Buffalo Sabres
1998Dallas Stars Detroit Red Wings Washington Capitals
1997Colorado Avalanche Detroit Red Wings Philadelphia Flyers
1996Detroit Red Wings Colorado Avalanche Florida Panthers
1995 (*) Detroit Red Wings New Jersey Devils Detroit Red Wings
1994 (*) New York Rangers New York Rangers Vancouver Canucks
1993Pittsburgh Penguins Montreal Canadiens Los Angeles Kings
1992New York Rangers Pittsburgh Penguins Chicago Blackhawks
1991Chicago Blackhawks Pittsburgh Penguins Minnesota North Stars
1990 (*) Boston Bruins Edmonton Oilers Boston Bruins
1989 (*) Calgary Flames Calgary Flames Montreal Canadiens
1988Calgary Flames Edmonton Oilers Boston Bruins
1987 (*) Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers Philadelphia Flyers
1986Edmonton Oilers Montreal Canadiens Calgary Flames

So, why is Detroit out so early? Are they just a bunch of pansies? Could it be that, as has been suggested by many people including me, their impressive regular season points total was compiled by victimizing hapless bottom-feeders like Columbus, Chicago and St. Louis (all of which share a division with Detroit)? Could it be as well that the NHL's point system, which hands out points not merely for winning in regulation time, but for battling to a draw, for winning in 4-on-4 overtime (not real hockey) and for winning in shootouts (not even a spectre of real hockey), presents a distorted picture totally at odds with the reality of 5-on-5 battle-'til-you-die playoff hockey?

Well, here's a new system. Let's award points only for wins in regulation (5-on-5) and each team gets one point only for such a win. Below is a table juxtaposing the NHL's rankings with this new system:

NHL rankTeamNHL points Rank0TeamPoints
1Detroit124 1Detroit51
2Ottawa113 2Ottawa48
3Carolina112 3Calgary (+4)42
4Dallas112 4Buffalo (+1)41
5Buffalo110 5Carolina (-1)40
6Nashville106 6Nashville40
7Calgary103 7Dallas (-3)38
8Philadelphia101 8Avalanche (+5)37
9New Jersey101 9Mighty Ducks (+3)37
10New York Rangers100 10San José (+1)34
11San José99 11Vancouver (+6)34
12Anaheim98 12Philadelphia (-4)34
13Colorado95 13Montreal (+2)33
14Edmonton95 14New Jersey (-5)33
15Montreal93 15New York Rangers (-5)33
16Tampa Bay92 16Minnesota (+6)32
17Vancouver92 17Los Angeles (+3)32
18Toronto90 18Toronto31
19Atlanta90 19Tampa Bay (-3)31
20Los Angeles89 20Atlanta (-1)31
21Florida85 21Edmonton (-7)28
22Minnesota84 22Phoenix (+1)28
23Phoenix81 23Florida (-2)25
24New York Islanders78 24New York Islanders24
25Boston74 25Boston23
26Columbus74 26Columbus21
27Washington70 27Washington20
28Chicago65 28Chicago17
29Pittsburgh58 29Pittsburgh17
30St. Louis57 30St. Louis14

Well, although it seems like the table is right about a few things, it seems even wronger about others. Namely, it exagerates the supposed disparity between Detroit and Edmonton to an even greater extent. What about this picking-on-the-weak theory? Let's re-rank the teams using our previous ranking system as a point of departure (called Rank0). We're going to define a new ranking, Rank1 based upon Rank0 and the supposed strength of each team beaten by a given team as follows: for every regulation victory over another team, the victor is awarded the Rank0 of the losing team. Hence, if Detroit beats St. Louis, it gets a measly 14 points whereas if it defeats a strong team like Calgary, we give it 42 points. Beating Calgary is worth 3x as much as beating St. Louis now!

PlaceRank0Rank1 Rank2Rank4Rank7
1DetroitOttawa (+1) Ottawa Detroit (+1) Detroit
2OttawaDetroit (-1) Detroit Ottawa (-1) Ottawa
3CalgaryCalgary Calgary Calgary Calgary
4BuffaloBuffalo Buffalo Dallas (+1) Dallas
5CarolinaCarolina Dallas (+1) Buffalo Buffalo
6NashvilleDallas (+1) Carolina (-1) Carolina Carolina
7DallasColorado (+1) Colorado Colorado Colorado
8ColoradoAnaheim (+1) Anaheim Anaheim Anaheim
9AnaheimNashville (-3) Nashville Nashville Nashville
10San JoséVancouver (+1) Vancouver Vancouver Vancouver
11VancouverSan José (-1) San José San José San José
12PhiladelphiaMontreal (+1) Montreal Montreal Minnesota (+1)
13MontrealMinnesota (+3) Minnesota Minnesota Montreal (-1)
14New JerseyNew Jersey Los Angeles (+1) Los Angeles Los Angeles
15New York RangersLos Angeles (+2) New Jersey (-1) New Jersey New Jersey
16MinnesotaNew York Rangers (-1) New York Rangers New York Rangers New York Rangers
17Los AngelesToronto (+1) Toronto Toronto Atlanta (+1)
18TorontoAtlanta (+2) Atlanta Atlanta Toronto (-1)
19Tampa BayPhiladelphia (-7) Philadelphia Edmonton (+2) Edmonton
20AtlantaPhoenix (+2) Phoenix Philadelphia (-1) Phoenix (+1)
21EdmontonEdmonton Edmonton Phoenix (-1) Philadelphia (-1)
22PhoenixTampa Bay (-2) Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Tampa Bay
23FloridaNew York Islanders (+1) New York Islanders New York Islanders New York Islanders
24New York IslandersFlorida (-1) Florida Florida Florida
25BostonBoston Boston Boston Boston
26ColumbusWashington (+1) Washington Washington Washington
27WashingtonColumbus (-1) Columbus Columbus Columbus
28ChicagoPittsburgh (+1) Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Chicago (+1)
29PittsburghChicago (-1) Chicago Chicago Pittsburgh (-1)
30St. LouisSt. Louis St. Louis St. Louis St. Louis

What I've actually done is created a recursive function Rankj where Rankk+1 is defined in terms of Rankk and a team's regular-season regulation wins. It's clear that each new solution tends to be closer to the true result than the previous one (e.g. if Team A beat Team B a lot and Team B had a lot of points in Rank0 because it had a lot of wins against weak teams, we'd expect Team A to have too many points in Rank1 but this number would decrease in future iterations as Team B's numbers decreased). In any case, without proving it mathematically, it seems obvious that this function has a solution that can be approximated to a high degree of accuracy via iteration. So much for the Detroit as bully to Columbus theory.

The function seems to converge around the 10th iteration: more or less as shown in the rightmost column but with the Wild up to 12th, the Oil up at 17th, and the Flyers down to 21st. If this ranking system were "better" than the league's point system, in the East Tampa and Philly would be out of the playoffs in favour of Toronto and Atlanta; in the West, the Canucks would supplant the Oilers. This of course is utter nonsense: Edmonton took Detroit out in 6 games of the first round, home ice advantage and all.

The first problem with stats like this is that they look at averages across an entire season, which may not accurately reflect the state of things as the playoffs begin. Injuries occur. Trades are made. Players are sent down to the minors or called up. Coaches and general managers are fired. Players and personnel deal with personal problems and the capricious and unpredictable human emotional state. Some teams are young and full of energy. Others are older and perhaps tire as the 82-game regular season and subsequent playoff grind wears them down. Furthermore, teams that have to claw their way into the playoffs are essentially playing playoff hockey weeks before the playoffs start: phrases like "staving off elimination" are all too familiar to them... Could this have worked in Edmonton's favour? Finally, at some point we have to ackknowledge the power of things like momentum and plain old luck.

I know there are some people in the world who are actually quite good at betting on sports pools of one kind or another. By both the league's own metric and my attempt at designing a new one however, Stanley Cup playoff series are too unpredictable to bother betting on. If someone has a better way of valuing teams relative to each other, I'd love to hear about it. As for the relation to the stock exchange, there really isn't one. If you could look at a season's stats for a "portfolio" of 30 years and attempt to predict series winners, finalists, and Stanley Cup champions in each of those years, you might come away not doing too shabbily. Unfortunately, the only place to get those 30 years of stats is in the past, where the winners are already known. I suppose it's not beyond the realm of possibility that a detailed study could be undertaken to attempt to discover and validate a method that could be used successfully on average going into the future. But it's hardly worth the while.

Having no idea whatsoever who's going to win, I say "Go Ottawa!!".